Trump and Republican nominee, has suggested that delve into these ideas in an upcoming speech. However, experts in various subjects that have analyzed the plans presented so far warn that the price could be astronomical -who whether pague- and defy, in many ways, the logic of science, engineering and law.
massive -Deportaciones: adding chaos to dysfunction
Trump has a simple plan to reduce the population of 11 million immigrants living illegally in the United States: deporting them.
How? Ensures follow the example of military-style raids authorized by President Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1954. The initiative, known as Operation Wetback, expelled hundreds of thousands of Mexicans.
Trump contends that begin deportations show immigrants who are serious and many would be encouraged to go on their own feet; also he said that finish all the work would take about two years. There are just details.
People who have worked on immigration and borders are skeptical, to put it mildly. Recently, deportations have increased to about 400,000 a year, so the increase in the amount to achieve the goal of Trump would be exponential.
"I can not even begin to imagine how deportaríamos to 11 million people in a few years if we have a police state, if the police can not break down your door when you want to aprehenderte without a warrant," said Michael Chertoff, responsible for an increase significant in the enforcement of immigration as secretary of Homeland Security during the administration of President George W. Bush.
Experts believe that these immigrants would find difficult. Police officers across the country would have to ask people some evidence of residency or citizenship when stopped at traffic lights and while walking down the street. The Border Patrol would have to put checkpoints on highways throughout the Southwest and near the Canadian border. To not be swayed by racial profiling, any American could expect to be arrested and you were asked your documents.
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A family of Central walks near Rome, in Texas, after entering the United States with the intent to seek asylum. Credit John Moore / Getty Images
To achieve million deportations, the attention paid by the Obama Administration deporting dangerous criminals happen to the background, said Julie Myers Wood, director of the Bureau of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, also known as ICE, during the government of Bush. "I do not care if the person has a criminal record," he said.
Large-scale raids, rare with Obama, would resume in farms, factories, restaurants and construction sites; agents would arrest hundreds of workers and indagarían in company records. Prosecutors denounce employers who hire immigrants without work permits.
Trump has said he would triple the number of officers ICE deportation of about 5000 to 15,000. However, if I could accomplish this in a short time even something difficult, given the rigorous examination and training they require-would remain insufficient, according to expert estimates. The FBI and other agencies would have to shelve some of their missions to help.
To prevent leakage after the arrests, the authorities should retain most of immigrants who are awaiting deportation. Existing facilities, with about 34,000 beds would have to be extended; perhaps it would have to place some 10,000 people in detention camps.
Most deportations must be approved by judges. The federal government would have to open dozens of emergency courts and hire hundreds of judges.
the calculation is made as done, the costs would be enormous. American Action Forum, a research group of conservative estimated that federal spending would be at least 400 billion dollars and that only if the deportations were extended for 20 years.
Therefore, the main shortcoming of the proposals, in the logic of some former officials, is unrealistic.
"Unless you to suspend the constitution and give it instructed the police to behave as if we lived in North Korea, it will not happen," Chertoff said.
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The border guard Cantu Happy climbs onto a metal barrier on the border between the US and Mexico in Hidalgo, Texas. Credit Kirsten Luce for The New York Times
-the Wall: Big, beautiful and ... antipráctico
Trump has promised that the wall will be big, beautiful, tall and strong. 1600 kilometers long along the southern US border, stop the flow of immigrants who bring drugs and crime. And yes, Mexico will pay for the Great Wall Trump, as he called.
However, it has been seen that the wall causes divisions both in theory and in practice. National security experts, immigration policy and civil engineering opinion that build it would be a daunting task.
Trump said the wall would be built of steel and precast concrete and could measure 15 meters high at least. After proposing that extended along the 3,000 kilometers of the southern border, then claimed that half of that extension would be sufficient due to natural barriers. Fixed cost between 4 and 12 billion dollars, and the latest figure was established about 10 billion dollars. Some believe that this sum falls short.
"There are a lot of logistics involved here and not know if you have considered properly," said Todd Sternfeld, CEO of Superior Concrete, a construction of walls based in Texas. "Only the necessary resources would be astronomical."
Sternfeld made statements and explained that a concrete wall 12 meters high to which a system of "post and panel" extended three meters under ground -to reduce the construction cost will be used túneles- at least 26 billion dollars. The logistics would be a nightmare because many sites include cast concrete and temporary residences for thousand employees if the work is going to end in the first four years of Trump.
Maintenance would be an additional cost recurring said Walter W. Boles, a professor of engineering at Middle Tennessee State University. He explained that a deep trench would also be required to prevent such a high wall like that to fall and it would be prudent to use seismic sensors to detect any excavation and care under the wall integrity. "It is a construction project of a thousand devils," Boles said.
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Aerial view of the Rio Grande Credit John Moore / Getty Images
-Keep The water supply: a diplomatic challenge
And what about water?
Billions of liters of water flow between the US and Mexico and feed the life of farms and communities on both sides of the border. The Colorado River water sent south and the Great River, the natural border hundreds of kilometers, delivering much-needed water much of southern Texas.
Experts in water resources in southwest question how could adjust the border Trump to these flows so important and the wall that wants to raise.
Another complication is that a treaty signed almost 50 years ago between Mexico and the United States prohibits any construction obstruct or divert watercourses.
"We've been joking about the size of the gap in the need to let the water run through the wall," said Patricia Mulroy, senior partner at the Brookings Institution and exfuncionaria Water System in Nevada.
When asked Hope Hicks, spokesman for Trump, if the proposed wall may impede the flow of water, he did not answer directly. "The proposal speaks for itself," he said, adding that the details could be reviewed on the website of Trump. However, the page does not address the issue of water currents.
Anyone who seeks to define how to build a wall to cut the flow of water to people without violating their obligations under treaties waters of the country expect a complicated scenario of environmental science and diplomatic tensions. There are several international treaties that establish the rules for sharing water of the Colorado, Tijuana and Bravo.
The United States and Mexico took five years to agree on a border treaty limits that would allow them to deal with historical drought. In addition to the 2012 agreement, Mexico agreed to share part of its water supply from the Colorado River. The situation went well and the authorities highlight the delicate but friendly relations between the two countries on the issue.
"We depend on Mexicans trust us," Mulroy said. "It is a very important diplomatic issue."
He also explained that a wall "other opportunities cooperation agreement would be null".
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